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Real Time Forecast- Delft3d Hydrodynamic and Wave Model

Sebastian Inlet, FL and vicinity

Model Setup

A numerical model has been developed using Delft3D, a 3-dimensional modeling suite for hydrodynamics, sediment transport and morphology, and water quality for estuarine and coastal environments. A curvilinear orthogonal grid was created with grid size ranging from 14 m in the inlet to 475 m in the coastal area and with 5 sigma layers. The grid represents coastline from Wabasso Beach to Indialantic Beach. Wave model was set up using SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) model suite integrated into Delft3D. Same flow grid and bathymetry were used for wave model setup.

Left: Model domain (Red rectangular box). Right: Zoomed model domain in the Sebastian Inlet. (Google Earth)

Left: Model grid (subsampled one per three grid lines). Right: Detailed grid for Sebastian Inlet area

Offshore Boundary Conditions

The model is driven by water elevation time series that includes tides and lower frequency sea level oscillations, and meteorological forcing. Temperature, salinity and sea surface elevation along north, south and east open boundaries were derived from HYCOM and NCODA Gulf of Mexico 1/25° Analysis. Meteorological forcing (relative humidity, air temperature, wind forcing, heat flux, evaporation and precipitation) was derived from North American Mesoscale Forecast system (NAM). Open boundary conditions for wave model have been derived from global wave model WavewatchIII. Significant wave height, peak period, wave direction and direction spreading data were derived from WavewatchIII.

Temperature and salinity profile at East1 boundary node

Model Validation

Model results for water level timeseries were compared with data from buoy near Sebastian Inlet. There is a good match between model results and buoy data for water level timeseries with small difference in amplitude but very good match between phases. Correlation comparison is well over 90%. Salinity. temperature, and sig. wave height from simulation results were also compared with measured data. These comparisons showed good match with observed data. Following figures show these comparisons.

Water level timeseries comparison between model and measured data at Sebastian Inlet

Temperature (left) and Sig. wave height (right) timeseries comparison respectively at LOBO and Sebastian Inlet stations

Real Time Forecast

Parameters Predicted

Click on station names for timeseries forecast. alttext alttext alttext alttext alttext alttext

3 days of timeseries forecast data has been provided here for LOBO, Sebastian Inlet, North Jetty, Wabasso Beach, and Indialantic Beach stations.

Water level timeseries forecast at Sebastian Inlet (left) and North Jetty (right) for 3 days

3 days Water level timeseries forecast at LOBO station (left) and Indialantic Beach (right).

Timeseries forecast of surface current at Sebastian Inlet (left) and LOBO station (right)

3 days forecast of surface salinity and temperature at LOBO station (left) and Sebastian Inlet (right)

Water level and Surface Current forecast map.

Sig. wave height timeseries forecast at Sebastian Inlet (left) and LOBO station (right)

Sig. wave height and Surface Current forecast map

Developed by

Ahsan Habib, PhD

Dr. Gary Zarillo, PhD

Dept of Ocean Engineering and Marine Sciences